The Investor's Edge ®

Certain Wealth in Uncertain Times®

Like the mighty tree that will grow from the cutting above, are you just starting out?

Or perhaps you don't want to invest $500,000 in the markets?

We recognize that not every investor will want to meet our minimum investment requirement or wants the personal assistance we offer to help grow their portfolio. So while Investor's Edge ® is a publication offered gratis to Stanford Wealth Management clients, it is available to all investors by subscription.

We make no claims to infallibility nor prescience. Indeed, the old admonition that prior successes are no "guarantee" of future performance is important for every investor to remember. But we've included below a few of our writings over the years to demonstrate that we try to do our homework and as a result, we've been fortunate to have predicted a number of trends, like the dot-com implosion, the housing-based recovery, the subprime fiasco and more, as much as a year before the rest of the investing community caught on.

That doesn’t mean you need to read Investor’s Edge ® to benefit from those insights, although you will see them here before we publish or discuss them anywhere else. Because our principals are frequently asked to speak and write about investing, economic and geopolitical issues, you may well see our articles quoted on numerous sites online or in print. But while you may see some of our buy recommendations elsewhere (after they have appeared in Investor’s Edge ®), we reserve two additional resources solely for subscribers: we tell you how much to buy so you can construct a mirrored portfolio and we tell you when we are selling from our Model Portfolios.

Below are some examples of our calls. In writing. With the date clearly stated. If you think you'd enjoy reading our thoughts monthly, head to the bottom of the page to order...

In March of 1999 , in the midst of the dot.com.bull. I [speaking as the editor of Investor’s Edge ®] sounded a warning that trees do not grow to the clouds and markets do not go up forever. A book had just come out predicting 36,000 on the Dow. I instead advised subscribers to place tight trailing stop orders under their positions...

Even toward the end of 2000, there were still plenty of good short sale opportunities or chances to get out before the going got even tougher. I advised selling AMZN at 106 and 10 months later it was 38. In this issue, I noted that AOL's fee-for-browsing model was suspect as competitor after competitor went to free-to-browse -- where we still are today. AOL? Not so good.

By May of 2001 the rout was in full swing. But as the pine cones fall from the trees in the winds of November, their seeds sprout the following spring. I was seeing signs that, having sidestepped the worst of the dot.com.bom, there would be light at the end of the tunnel. There always is! So we put our money into alternatives and waited.

In December 2002 I ran this headline and began to buy again. I was early by a couple months but I don't think our clients or subscribers minded -- in retrospect. At the time, the prevailing wisdom was that the investing world as we knew it was coming to an end and there was more than one client calling to tell me I was nuts. It all seemed to work out OK, though.

The market did quite well for all of 2003 - 2006. But storm clouds were brewing. That rally was fueled by the easy money that Fed Chairman Greenspan heaped upon banks, mortgage lenders and quasi-government lenders like Fannie and Freddie. Apparently, Chairman Bernanke is not the only one who couldn't stand to see a prolonged recession on his watch. Here was my early warning take on what would likely happen within the next year...

By 2008 it was obvious to even the most virulent bull that something was amiss. 2007 started great, then went into a tailspin.

Why? It was the real estate bubble I'd warned about in 2005, 2006 and 2007. At the time, I lost a couple subscribers because they wanted to talk about the market, not real estate. As we've learned, the two are joined at the hip...

By March 2009 I'd had about as much bear market fun as I could stand. When I saw AAA-rated Royal Dutch Shell at 5 times earnings with an 8% yield -- which clients who bought back on this date are still getting, and more since it has been raised since then! -- I decided to re-enter the market. It wasn't brilliance on my part that the market turned the next business day. It was nothing more than paying attention to value. I figured if Shell and all the other great companies selling for 50 cents on the dollar went bust, we had bigger problems than the stock market...

It isn't my intent to suggest that I only make good calls. Indeed, I was too cautious in 2010, 2011 and even the first part of 2012. This was a mistake, though not a costly one. Why not? Because all I've lost is the opportunity to make money in this time period. We didn't lose any money those years, but neither did we jump aboard a train I feared was going to jump the rails. Thanks to massive over-printing of dollars, bank bailouts, QE 1,2, and 3, Operation Twist, Euro printing, etc., we've managed to whistle past that graveyard. But we are all about not losing money first, then dedicating ourselves to increasing it. If you can keep from losing money, you can always make it during the next cycle.

It isn't how much you make this week or month or year. It's how much you keep.
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The most recent review of our work from the website Stock Gumshoe, which we believe is the only website where the newsletter's actual subscribers review the publication:

"Investor’s Edge is probably the best stock newsletter that I’ve read. What I appreciate most about this letter is Joe Shaefer’s honesty and humility, as well as the education he provides... His approach to investing is clear and consistent- looking for high quality companies at a good value."

"Most thoughtful and inspiring investment newsletter I have found in my 62 years. Shaefer brings an exceptionally broad array of knowledge and real-world experience to the table and applies it with precise expertise; expertise that is rarely shared with the average investor."

"Investor’s Edge is a well written, direct, and concise newsletter. Joe Shaefer gives you his candid assessment of the market and he then gives you a prediction of where the market is heading. After that, he talks about the changes in his suggested portfolios. All-in-all, a quick easy read that packs a lot of information in relatively few words."

If you'd like to see all reviews of all the newsletters Stock Gumshoe, as well as editor Travis Johnson's wonderfully incisive and iconoclastic reviews of and insights about those 20-page mailers or e-mails we get every day touting this or that next big thing, visit stockgumshoe.com.

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If you like our approach, we invite you to join our family of subscribers and give yourself The Edge!

Our rates for E-subscriptions are just $169 for 1 year; $229 for 2 years. (With 2 years, your 2nd year is just $60)

For US Postal delivery rates are $199 for 1 year, or $279 for 2 years. (With 2 years, your 2nd year is just $80)

We will include a copy of Mr. Shaefer's 1989 best-seller "Bringing Home the Gold" for the first 27 subscribers -- sorry, that's all we have left -- who ask for a personally autographed copy; be sure to ask the representative when you call for our special “Add $10.00 INCLUDING shipping" offer!

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PS -- It wouldn't be fair to our subscribers to post a current issue online. But if you'll click on "Recent Copy" on the drop-down tab we'll always provide a complete copy from two or three months back right here on our website...